Sunday, March 8, 2009

Home and Heartbreak

1 game of magic.  1 game of disaster.  Kinda sums up the season for the Creighton Bluejays.  Flip a coin and that's the likely hood of seeing the Jays in the NCAA Tournament.  My opinion - they have done enough to get in (Joe Lunardi disagrees) but the next time I'm in committee room will be the first.  But let's look at the resume of CU as of this morning. 

26-7.  Good RPI 38. Very Good. SOS 114.  Not Good.  14-4 in the MVC.  OK  Co-Champs of the Valley.  Good.  Record. Top 50 - 2-0.  Not bad but not enough.  8-4 on the road.  Very good.  1 loss on a nuetral floor vs. 4 wins.  Ok.  

With all of would think I would say they are a lock.  However, with mid-major teams, you CAN NOT give the committee a reason to keep you out.  With the BCS schools, they look for a reasons to keep them in.  Mid-majors don't get that luxury.  Getting blasted in the semi-finals of the MVC tourney could be that reason that keeps CU out of the tournament.  

The question will now be how many of the 34 at large spots are available after this weekend.  Mid-major 1 bid leagues need to won by the favorite...all of them.  I predict the Jays will be 1 of 4 or 5 teams that will be up for a 1 or 2 bids in the field.  The loss to Illinois St.  was U-G-L-Y but maybe in 10 days the affect will wear off.  I don't know though....73-49 is pretty striking.   

7 losses.  2 to Ill St.  Ark. Little Rock.  @ Wichita.  Drake.....

26 wins.  Dayton, New Mexico @ St Joe's, @ UNI, 9 straight win streak- a 11 gamer as well......

That top line is heavier than the bottom one unfortunately.  Prediction:  Last 4 out but not dead yet.  

Assuming Howard and Southern Illinois were not Top 65 teams in 1987 and 1990, respectively (pre-RPI) ...  No eligible team with an RPI of 64 or better, 26 wins, and from a Top 10 league has been omitted from the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton's RPI is 39 today.   MVC ranks No. 9
First number is team RPI, conference RPI is in parentheses.

Teams             Year          W-L     RPI
#UNLV             1992  26-2    15 (Ineligible) (11)
Howard          1987            26-5    Before RPI
S.F. Austin             2008            26-5    64 (17)
Southern Illinois       1990            26-7    Before RPI
Akron                   2007            26-7    67 (14)
IUPUI                   2008            26-7    69 (22)
Robert Morris   2008            26-7    135 (24)

ON A HAPPIER NOTE:   Check my Mom!!  

That's an article in the Boston Globe about what my mother does!!!  Very Proud of her today!

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